A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
